(12)2週與9週交叉位作指標,更清楚中期後市去向!

2週與9週交叉位作指標,更清楚中期後市去向!

(11)18天跌穿22天

好友終於頂不住,18天跌穿22天,大市繼續進入調整期.

(10)另類參考大市工具

另類參考工具,18天平均綫沒有跌穿22天平均線現在仍然可以繼續持貨,大市未有出貨訊號.

(9)從波浪理論看恆指走勢

個人睇法從31958跌至11344是行5-3-5形式=A(5) B(3) C(5),
A (31958---->20572)
B (20572---->26173)
C (26173---->11344)........(10676--->11344以失敗5浪終結~下跌時出現的失敗形態反映市底潛在的強勢,對後市極有參考價值).

對於底部有不同意見,主要原因是恆指42隻成分股中,
部份股份於第二個底部11344才見底,參差見底,圖表上顯示雙底/高低腳(如看週線圖 收市指數計9 March 09' 低點低於27 Oct 08').
例如下列五股見底價位:
1(59.8~10676, 55.95~113440),
5(75~10676, 33~11344),
11(78~10676, 67~11344),
293(7.03~10676, 6.9~11344),
2388(7.54~10676, 6.3~11344),
個人是選取C-(5)失敗浪告終!

大浪1-(5):
(1)(11344--->15977)升幅 (4633)
(2)(15977--->14458)跌幅 0.328(1519)
(3)(14458--->19161)升幅 1.015(4703)
(4)(19161--->17185)跌幅 0.328(1519)
(5)(17185--->21196)升幅 0.865(4011)

PS. 接近徘徊區升幅(15977-10676)+15977=21278

大浪1-(5)行完, 進入大浪2-abc調整期.

(8)從波浪理論分析恆生指數走勢

(Revised case)
假設現在行畢大浪I-(3)-(i),(ii),(iii),(iv),(v),現已進入I-(4)-(a)(21196--->?).
I-(1) (11344--->15977)
I-(2) (15977--->14458)
I-(3)-(i)(14458--->17686)
(ii)(17686--->16982)
(iii)(16982--->19161)
(iv)(19161--->17185)
(v)(17185--->21196)

I-(4)-(a)(21196--->?)
(b)?
(c)(?-18800-21000)
I-(5)-(i)(?)
(ii)(?)
(iii)(?)
(iv)(?)
(v)(?)

PS : 黃金比率目標位=阻力位

(7)恆指經調整後~大市應繼續上升

假設現在行緊大浪１(中浪i ,ii ,iii ,iv, v), 5 Aug.,09"

wave i 11344-->14257(升幅2913點~升25.6%) wave ii 14257-->13411(跌幅846點~跌5.9%) wave iii 13411-->19161(升幅5750點~升42.8%~一浪之1.97) wave iv 19161-->17185(跌幅1776點~跌10.3%) wave v (17185-->21196)暫時升幅 4011點~升23.34%,一浪之1.376倍 21196--->20436~暫時最低,跌760點~3.58%.(跌760點), 以前跌幅介乎5.9%-10.3%都屬於正常調整,經過調整.....後市應該重有得升.
PS : 黃金比率目標位=阻力位

(6) 從波浪理論分析恆生指數走勢

個人睇法是從31958跌至11344是行5-3-5形式=(A)/or-A(5) B(3) C(5),
A (31958---->20572)
B (20572---->26173)
C (26173---->11344)........(10676--->11344以失敗5浪終結~下跌時出現的失敗形態反映市底潛在的強勢,對後市極有參考價值).
對於底部有不同意見,主要原因是恆指42隻成分股中,
部份股份於第二個底部11344才見底,參差見底,圖表上顯示雙底/高低腳.
例如1(59.8~10676, 55.95~113440),
5(75~10676, 33~11344),
11(78~10676, 67~11344),
293(7.03~10676, 6.9~11344),
2388(7.54~10676, 6.3~11344),
個人是選取C-(5)失敗浪告終!

假設現在行緊大浪１(中浪i ,ii ,iii ,iv, v),
(case 1)
wave i (11344-->15977)
wave ii (15977-->14257)
wave iii (14257-->20660)升幅 1.382
(14257-->21206)升幅 1.5
(14257-->21753)升幅 1.618
(14257-->23532)升幅 2

(case 2)
wave i 11344-->14257(2913)
wave ii 14257-->13411(846)
wave iii 13411-->21196(7785)
wave iv 21196-->????19824

(case 3)(出現機會很低)
或緊隨(A)浪31958---->11344之(B)浪(子浪A),
(B)浪~(子浪A內分五個浪)如下: (中浪i, ii, iii, iv, v, )
wave i 11344-->14257
wave ii 14257-->13411
wave iii 13411-->19161
wave iv 19161-->17185
wave v (17185-->20098)升幅 1
(17185-->20785)升幅 1.236
(17185-->21210)升幅 1.382
(17185-->21554)升幅 1.5
(17185-->21898)升幅 1.618
(17185-->23011)升幅 2.0
(17185-->24811)升幅 2.618

(5) Index and the Hang Seng Index was 6.9 percent higher than at the end of the relationship between wave

Hang Seng Index rebounded from 17,185 ,.... later than the Hang Seng Index 6.9% higher than the mean HSI 17,185 * 1.069 = 18,371 appears, 17,185 have been more than 90% at the bottom of a short-term (root to hold the past few decades Hong Kong stocks rebound on many occasions and the results obtained).
Another example is the Hang Seng Index 11,344 (9 March 2009) on how to identify when it is at the bottom of it?
Will be 11,344 * 1.069 = 12,127, and its meaning after 9 March 2009 is close to the Hang Seng Index stood at 12,127 points, the rise of the new wave has been born, then this also proves that 11,344 of the waves at the bottom of the Hang Seng Index.

(4) Hong Kong's economic cycle and the relationship between the Hang Seng Index

Hong Kong's economic cycle and the relationship between the Hang Seng Index: --
In 1973/1974, after an economic recession in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index from December 1974 to March 1976 rose to 150 points from 465 points (210 percent increase), the real economy to be prosperous in 1978. As for December 2, 1982 Hang Seng Index was up by 676 points July 21, 1983 1102 points (63 percent increase), the real economy to flourish until 1985. The Hang Seng Index from October 27, 2008 rose to 10,676 points on July 24 is 20,063 points, representing an increase of 88%, such as Hong Kong's economic recovery next year, it was established that, on behalf of the rise is really a new city, a trend the other hand is another trap.

(3) Hang Seng Index moving average 4 weeks and 34 weeks of the relationship between moving average

Hang Seng Index moving average four weeks and 34 weeks moving average of the relationship: --
Hang Seng Index moving average four weeks or 34 weeks to wear Moving Average (April 2009) and can be stabilized on their significance on behalf of the rise of a new wave has been the birth of the movement is a wave higher than the form of a running wave .
As for the Hang Seng Index closed 2 May 2008 was back to 26,173, the Hang Seng Index moving average four weeks or can not wear 34 weeks moving average can be stabilized in the last, so without success, because the city-state stage in the trend .... is falling, and ultimately fell to 10676 (27 Oct 2009) to bottom (a high reference).
City on the rise, the previous four weeks when the Hang Seng Index below the moving average line (approximately equivalent to 20 days moving average), below 34 weeks moving average hold stocks should not relax, could mean to be short-term market peaked shall leave the final in order to preserve their strength and then the bottom left to re-absorb the high-quality stocks to meet the increase in the next big wave (and aggressive investors can short sell the index futures / options / shares to profit). PS 4-week moving average line and the 34 weeks moving average line also apply to U.S. Dow index and S & P 500.

(2)Movements of the Hang Seng Index Forecast and Share

See the sharp reduction in the size of a wave surge (19,502.37 +696.7 ~ 20 July 09 'waves this adjustment so that a lot of people really confused) ... This is my observation of many years of experience in the market, so handy! Reasons: (1). weekly 14 RSI has not fallen below 50, the representative may continue to rise shortly after. (2). ,.... subsequent rebound from the 17,185 higher than 6.9%. 3). HSI average balance of 50 (this line is very important) is just below one day, then rose back to its last, proved to be false below. (4). futures / options positions have increased ... (5) A number of the shares in recent weeks has been adjustments to the March low in June rose to a high percentage of the total increase in the level of 0.382, that is, the adjustment has already begun, but some of the shares is not significantly down, and always stand on high, the index only returned 10.3% (19,161>> 17,185), so Hang Seng Index is very difficult to know to see 42 to adjust a lot of the original stock, a rebound from the 17,185 higher than the 6.9% ,.... then I saw the Hang Seng Index over the entire 42 shares index charts (with the technical analysis can be know that they are short-term trend), find that they were each adjusted to increase finished .., so the forecast will be broken shortly after the 19161-17185 level ... there are about 1976 points around the district, a record high.

(1)Movements of the Hang Seng Index Forecast and Share

Since the Hang Seng Index closed 12,525.80 (13 March 09')..... today is close to (19502.3720 Jul 09 '), the overall trend is not wrong, and now I try to many years of investment experience having to predict the trend of the Hang Seng Index , market outlook is still optimistic about the short-term to see the Hang Seng Index 22,024!

(5a)指數出現高於6.9%與恆指浪底之關係

恆指從17185反彈,....其後高於6.9%>>>>等於恆指高於17185*1.069=18371出現後,17185已經有九十幾個巴仙是短期底部了(根椐過往幾十年港股歷次反彈而得出的統計結果).
又例如恆指11344(9 March 2009)當時如何鑑定它是底部呢?
將11344x1.069=12127,其意是9 March 2009後恆指收市能企於12127點,新的上升浪已誕生了,其後亦証明11344是這次恆指的浪底。

(4a)香港經濟周期與恆生指數的關係

香港經濟周期與恆生指數的關係:-1973/1974年香港經濟大衰退後, 恆指由1974年12月至1976年3月從150點上升到465點 (升幅210%), 實體經濟要到1978年先繁榮起來。至於1982年12月2日那次恆指由676點上升到1983年7月21日1102點 (升幅63%)，實體經濟要到1985年才繁榮起來。今次恆指由2008年10月27日10676點上升到現在7月24日20063點，升幅88%，如香港經濟實體係明年復蘇，代表這次真的新上升市，反之是另一次走勢陷阱。

(3a)恆生指數4週移動平均線與34週移動平均線之關係

恆生指數4週移動平均線升穿34週移動平均線(April 2009,意味着現在已經出現了)而能企穩於其上, 意義上代表一個新的上升浪已經誕生, 走勢上後市是反覆地一浪高於一浪的形式運行。
於2 May 2008 恆指收26173的那回, 恆指4週移動平均線不能升穿34週移動平均線而可以企穩於上,故此無功而回,因處於態市階段....走勢上是一浪低於一浪, 最終下跌至10676(27 Oct 2009)才見底(參考性甚高)。
在上升市當中, 歷次當恆指跌穿4週移動平均線(約等於20天移動平均線), 跌穿34週移動平均線持貨者應該不能鬆懈,可能意味著大市行將短期見頂,應即清貨離場以保存實力,留待見底後再重新吸納優質股來迎接下一個上升大浪(進取的投資者可以沽空期指/期權/股票來獲利)。 P.S.:4週移動平均線與34週移動平均線亦適用於美股杜指和S&P500.

参考資料:去周末 (18/7/2009) 巴克來資本發表一份研究報告, 根据1870年以來的數据, 得出在過去一年每股平均盈利錄得增長前六個月股市見底, 迄今為止,已公布業績的101家老美上市企業, 百分之六十三每股盈利有增長,認為美股已於三月見底, 因而看好後市, 這對港股亦有一定刺激作用.

P.S. 小弟認為恆生指數從11,344 (9 March 2009) 回升到現在是以一浪高於一浪的形式運行,大市還未見頂,,,,,,,有貨應繼續持有，但繼續持貨的參與者可以當恆指跌穿18,960.54為出貨位(止賺/止蝕), 以保安全。

(2a)恆生指數走勢預測與分享

睇中了這次急跌後急升的一浪(19,502.37 +696.7~20 July 09' 這段調整浪真係使很多人迷惘)...今次是本人觀察市場多年的經驗,所以得心應手!原因: (1). 週線14 RSI沒有跌破50,代表後市可以繼續升.(2). 從17185反彈,....其後高於6.9%. 3). 恆指50天平均線(此線是很重要的)衹是跌破一天,隨後升回其上,証明是假跌破.(4). 期指/期權..好倉都有增加.(5) 不少股份最近數周已調整至3月低位回升至6月高位的總升幅0.382比率的水平,即調整早已開始,但有些股份卻不顯著回落,始終企於高位,指數祗回了10.3%(19161>>17185),所以看指數很難知道恆指42隻股票原來調整了不少,從17185反彈,....其後高於6.9%,我整遍看了恆指42隻指數股的走勢圖(配合技術分析可以知道它們短期的走勢),發覺它們每隻調整完畢了..再向上升,所以預測後市將會打破19161至17185的台階...大約有1976點的徘徊區,再創新高.

(1a)恆生指數走勢預測與分享

恆指自從收12,525.80 (13 March 09').....至現今天收(19502.3720 Jul 09'),總體大勢都沒有看錯, 現在小弟嘗試以多年的投資經驗去預測恆指後市的走勢,後市仍然睇好,短期睇恆指浪頂V-I-(3)-3-(v) (19161-14458)/0.618+14458=22,068